Ria Reddy, Ben Rezaei, Carolyn Moorman, Kelly Campa, and Annika Ganzeveld
Information Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET
The
Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and
the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which
provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that
undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.
CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update daily.
Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of assessed control of terrain in Syria, and here
to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. The
Syria map is updated daily alongside the static Syria maps in this
report. CTP-ISW ended daily maps of Israeli ground operations in
February 2025.
Click here
to see ISW-CTP’s interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran
since June 12, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes
day-by-day.
Key Takeaways
- Iran is
continuing to try to assess damage at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant
(FFEP). CTP-ISW previously reported that imagery from June 28 and 29
showed an excavator and crane near the northern impact points and an
excavator near the southern impact points at Fordow. A US weapons expert
assessed on June 30 that Iran may be preparing to send cameras or
personnel into the craters to conduct a downhole damage assessment. - Satellite
imagery captured on July 1 indicates that Iran has at least partially
filled the three southern impact points and covered one of the northern
impact points with a temporary cover. A US weapons expert suggested that
Iran may seek to prevent materials and personnel from falling into the
craters while Iran conducts battle damage assessments around the site.
Satellite imagery captured on July 1 also shows that Iran has cleared
the surroundings of a tunnel entrance near the southern impact points to
enable vehicle access to the tunnel. - The Iranian Parliament
approved an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) law on June 29 that aims to
close the “critical legal and operational gaps” that enabled Israel to
conduct drone operations at the beginning of the Israel-Iran War. Mossad
established a secret drone base in Iranian territory prior to the war
that Israel used to target Iranian air defenses and missile launchers at
the start of the war. The Iranian Parliament also introduced a
nine-article law on June 29 that labels any intelligence, espionage, or
operational cooperation with Israel, the United States, or other
“hostile” actors as “corruption on earth,” which is a crime punishable
by death. These security measures are consistent with CTP-ISW’s previous
assessment that the Iranian regime is prioritizing regime stability
following the Israel-Iran War.
Iran is continuing to try to assess damage at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP).
Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 29 and 30
showed Iranian heavy equipment, including bulldozers and excavators,
near two clusters of impact points at Fordow.[1]
CTP-ISW previously reported that imagery from June 28 and 29 showed an
excavator and crane near the northern impact points and an excavator
near the southern impact points.[2]
A US weapons expert assessed on June 30 that Iran may be preparing to
send cameras or personnel into the craters to conduct a downhole damage
assessment.[3]
The expert noted that Iran will likely access the southern cluster of
impact points first because US strikes made the ground around the
northern impact points “highly unstable.” The expert stated that Iran is
likely using a bulldozer at the southern impact points to prepare a
platform for downhole access.[4] The expert added that Iran will likely lower cameras into the crater first and then personnel, depending on the site’s safety.
Satellite
imagery captured on July 1 indicates that Iran has at least partially
filled the three southern impact points and covered one of the northern
impact points with a temporary cover.[5]
It is unclear why Iran would cover or fill the craters. A US weapons
expert suggested that Iran may seek to prevent materials and personnel
from falling into the craters while Iran conducts battle damage
assessments around the site.[6] The expert noted that Iran would need to rebuild the ventilation shafts if it sought to resume operations at Fordow.[7]
Satellite
imagery captured on July 1 also shows that Iran has cleared the
surroundings of a tunnel entrance near the southern impact points to
enable vehicle access to the tunnel.[8] It is unclear how far vehicles will be able to travel in the tunnel system.
Iranian
nuclear safety regulators have reportedly stopped sharing information
with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), according to two
unspecified officials.[9] The IAEA’s Incident and Emergency
Center had maintained contact with Iranian regulators since June 13, but
two unspecified officials told Bloomberg on July 1 that Iran has
stopped sharing information with the IAEA. This report comes after
Iran’s Guardian Council approved a bill on June 26 that suspends Iran’s
cooperation with the IAEA and bars inspectors from accessing Iran’s
nuclear facilities.[10]
Iran has historically restricted IAEA oversight in Iran, including by
withdrawing the certifications of several inspectors in September 2023
and barring other top inspectors in November 2024.[11] The IAEA has not conducted any inspections in Iran since the Israel-Iran War began.
Iranian
Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi told Western media on July 1
that Iran “will not easily back down from enrichment.”[12]
This statement is consistent with CTP-ISW’s assessment that Iranian
officials have not relaxed their negotiating position on the US demand
for zero uranium enrichment.
The Iranian government has
imposed security measures on Iranians to counter Israeli drone warfare,
but these measures are unlikely to achieve the objectives they are meant
to achieve. The Iranian Parliament approved an unmanned aerial
vehicle (UAV) law on June 29 that aims to close the “critical legal and
operational gaps” that enabled Israel to conduct drone operations at
the beginning of the Israel-Iran War.[13]
Mossad established a secret drone base in Iranian territory prior to
the war that Israel used to target Iranian air defenses and missile
launchers at the start of the war.[14]
Iranian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Brigadier General Reza Talaei Nik
stated that Israel took extensive advantage of the “lack of effective
oversight and guidance in Iran.”[15]
The new law prohibits foreign nationals from being involved in the
production, import, export, and operation of UAVs. The law also mandates
that drone owners have proper registration, permits, tracking systems,
and insurance.[16]
It is unlikely that Iran will be able to successfully counter drone
operations in the near term, despite the new regulatory measures,
because Iran still lacks an effective counter-UAV interception network
and has limited experience in detecting low-signature, small quadcopters
operating in its territory. Battlefield trends in Ukraine suggest that
without mobile fire groups, Iran—like Russia—will likely struggle to
protect critical assets from small, low-cost drones.[17]
The
Iranian regime has also imposed security measures to counter
infiltration and domestic political dissent, which is consistent with
CTP-ISW’s previous assessment that the Iranian regime is prioritizing
regime stability following the Israel-Iran War. The Iranian
Parliament introduced a nine-article law on June 29 that labels any
intelligence, espionage, or operational cooperation with Israel, the
United States, or other “hostile” actors as “corruption on earth,” which
is a crime punishable by death.[18]
The Iranian regime defines corruption on earth as “acts that seriously
disrupt public order, threaten national security, or inflict widespread
harm on individuals or infrastructure.”[19]
The law also bans Starlink devices, which can help Iranians bypass
censorship, and imposes prison terms for anyone who possesses, uses, or
distributes these devices. The law also punishes individuals who engage
in unauthorized drone activity or cyber sabotage.[20]
Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media reported on July 1
that Iranian security forces arrested over 50 individuals “linked to
Israel” and killed two others over the past two weeks in Sistan and
Baluchistan Province.[21] The IRGC announced that it arrested “mercenary terrorist elements.”[22]
Some of the detainees could include Jaish al Adl fighters operating in
southeastern Iran. Jaish al Adl is a Baloch, Salafi-jihadi militant
group that frequently attacks Iranian security forces in southeastern
Iran. The Iranian regime has previously accused Israel of supporting
Jaish al Adl.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile before it crossed into Israeli territory on July 1.[23]
The Houthis have not claimed the attack at the time of this writing.
The Houthis have launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles
targeting Israel since the Houthis began their campaign to enforce an
economic blockade on Israel in November 2023.[24]
[1] https://x.com/DAVIDHALBRIGHT1/status/1939758564681150876
[2] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-special-report-june-29-2025
[3] https://x.com/DAVIDHALBRIGHT1/status/1939758564681150876
[4] https://x.com/DAVIDHALBRIGHT1/status/1939758564681150876
[5] https://x.com/DAVIDHALBRIGHT1/status/1940151936944370134/photo/3
[6] https://x.com/DAVIDHALBRIGHT1/status/1940151936944370134/photo/2
[7] https://x.com/davidhalbright1/status/1940151936944370134?s=46&t=EGYcIyXosW6lVJmixq2r5Q
[8] https://x.com/davidhalbright1/status/1940151936944370134?s=46&t=EGYcIyXosW6lVJmixq2r5Q
[9] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-01/iran-shuts-out-nuclear-monitors-in-wake-of-israel-and-us-attacks
[10] https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/1938173802958995930; https://x.com/PressTV/status/1938204404081156141
[11] https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/iran-withdraws-further-iaea-inspector-designations
[12] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-foreign-minister-interview-nuclear-talks/
[13] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1404/04/10/3346361/ ;
https://www.yjc dot ir/fa/news/8969912/
[14] https://www.israelhayom dot com/2025/06/13/revealed-mossads-secret-base-of-explosive-drones-inside-iran/ ;
https://www.timesofisrael
dot
com/liveblog_entry/mossad-set-up-a-drone-base-in-iran-uavs-were-activated-overnight-to-strike-surface-to-surface-missile-launchers-aimed-at-israel/
[15] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1404/04/10/3346361/ ;
https://www.yjc dot ir/fa/news/8969912/
[16] https://www.yjc dot ir/fa/news/8969912/
[17] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-30-2024 ;
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-10-2025 ;
[18] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1404/04/08/3344834
[19] https://www.hrw.org/report/2008/09/10/last-holdouts/ending-juvenile-death-penalty-iran-saudi-arabia-sudan-pakistan-and ;
https://journalismisnotacrime.com/en/features/1368/
[20] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1404/04/08/3344834
[21] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1404/04/10/3346493
[22] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1404/04/10/3346493
[23] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1940100958077202915
[24] https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2024/12/briefing-on-developments-related-to-houthi-attacks-on-israel.php
; https://www.timesofisrael dot
com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-houthis-have-launched-40-missiles-320-drones-at-israel-since-start-of-war/