Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 30, 2025

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

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[1] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0126

[2] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0126

[3] https://t.me/bbcrussian/79693

[4] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-29/war-in-ukraine-latest-putin-insists-on-territory-seizure-in-blow-to-trump

[5] https://isw.pub/UkrWar042325 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042425 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042725

[6] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-25-2025

[7] https://tass dot ru/politika/23824941; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-24-2025; https://isw.pub/UkrWar011125 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar011425; https://isw.pub/UkrWar041825 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar040725 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar122624 ; http://www.kremlin dot ru/events/president/transcripts/67843

[8] https://t.me/MID_Russia/56609

[9] https://isw.pub/UkrWar041525 ;

[10] https://mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=ru

[11] https://tass dot ru/politika/23821487 ; https://tass dot ru/politika/23824823

[12] https://isw.pub/UkrWar060724 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar052624 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar052024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar072524; https://isw.pub/UkrWar041525 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-4-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021725 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar012925 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar012425

[13] https://isw.pub/UkrWar042925

[14] https://isw.pub/UkrWar042525 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042825

[15] https://ria dot ru/20250430/svo-2014296618.html

[16] https://isw.pub/UkrWar041525; https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal.html;

[17] https://isw.pub/UkrWar042525

[18] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20April%203.pdf; https://isw.pub/UkrWar120422 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar111222 ; https://isw.pub/RusCampaignOct5

[19]

https://isw.pub/UkrWar112624; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-6-2025; https://isw.pub/UkrWar112424

[20] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russias-weakness-offers-leverage

[21] https://tass dot ru/politika/23821501

[22] https://isw.pub/UkrWar031325

[23] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/how-delays-western-aid-gave-russia-initiative-ukrainian-counteroffensive-kharkiv

[24] https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-april-29-2025/

[25] https://www.foxnews.com/video/6372062815112 ; https://suspilne dot media/1006287-tramp-hoce-dosagti-pripinenna-vognu-sonajmense-na-30-dniv-kellog/

[26] https://tass dot ru/politika/23821641; https://iz dot ru/1879495/2025-04-30/peskov-ukazal-na-neobkhodimost-dostizheniia-rf-postavlennykh-v-nachale-svo-tcelei

[27] https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/1023518

[28] https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/1023518

[29] https://isw.pub/UkrWar031325

[30] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-28-2025; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-23-2025

[31] https://www.vedomosti dot ru/politics/news/2025/04/30/1107833-prisutstvie-ssha-na-aes; https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/1023604; https://lenta dot ru/news/2025/04/30/v-rossii-dopustili-peregovory-s-ssha-po-zaporozhskoy-aes/; https://www.fontanka dot ru/2025/04/30/75408680/; https://rg dot ru/2025/04/30/reg-zaporozhskaya/glava-rosatoma-lihachev-nazval-usloviia-dlia-obsuzhdeniia-prisutstviia-ssha-na-zaes.html; https://iz dot ru/1879819/2025-04-30/likhachev-soobshchil-o-gotovnosti-rossii-obsudit-prisutstvie-ssha-na-zaes; https://www.gazeta dot ru/politics/news/2025/04/30/25675670.shtml

[32] https://isw.pub/UkrWar042525 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042325

[33] https://tass dot ru/ekonomika/23830117

[34] https://tass dot ru/ekonomika/23830117

[35] https://www.vedomosti dot ru/politics/news/2025/04/30/1107833-prisutstvie-ssha-na-aes; https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/1023604; https://lenta dot ru/news/2025/04/30/v-rossii-dopustili-peregovory-s-ssha-po-zaporozhskoy-aes/; https://www.fontanka dot ru/2025/04/30/75408680/; https://rg dot ru/2025/04/30/reg-zaporozhskaya/glava-rosatoma-lihachev-nazval-usloviia-dlia-obsuzhdeniia-prisutstviia-ssha-na-zaes.html; https://iz dot ru/1879819/2025-04-30/likhachev-soobshchil-o-gotovnosti-rossii-obsudit-prisutstvie-ssha-na-zaes; https://www.gazeta dot ru/politics/news/2025/04/30/25675670.shtml

[36] https://t.me/mod_russia/51982; https://t.me/mod_russia/51976

[37] https://t.me/mod_russia/51987; https://t.me/modmilby/47024; https://t.me/modmilby/47025

[38] https://isw.pub/UkrWar042925

[39] https://archive.ph/IVKpI ; https://www.reuters.com/world/about-600-north-koreans-killed-ukraine-war-south-korean-lawmaker-says-2025-04-30/ ; https://suspilne dot media/1006367-blizko-600-pivnicnokorejciv-zaginuli-u-vijni-v-ukraini-deputat-pivdennoi-korei/

[40] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3xtRxszZ3w ; https://suspilne dot media/1006357-derzdepartament-ssa-akso-ne-bude-progresu-v-peregovorah-vasington-moze-vidstupiti-ak-poserednik/

[41] https://t.me/tass_agency/312770; https://t.me/tass_agency/312795

[42] https://meduza dot io/news/2025/04/30/rossiya-i-kndr-zapustili-stroitelstvo-avtomobilnogo-mosta-pervogo-mezhdu-dvumya-stranami; https://t.me/tass_agency/312831

[43] https://t.me/SBUkr/14751 ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/04/30/yustas-ta-sber-vstanovleno-osoby-rashystiv-yaki-nakazaly-obezgolovyty-bijczya-zsu/

[44] https://isw.pub/UkrWar022025 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021725 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar112024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar101824 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar111024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024

[45] https://x.com/RoadtoMars9/status/1917434629537292781; https://t.me/kamerton_press/889

[46] https://t.me/wargonzo/26239; https://t.me/dva_majors/70191; https://t.me/olegtsarov/27369

[47] https://t.me/motopatriot78/35027

[48] https://t.me/readovkanews/95733; https://t.me/mod_russia/51984

[49] https://t.me/dva_majors/70191

[50] https://suspilne dot media/1006673-droni-sbu-urazili-muromskij-priladobudivnij-zavod-so-pracue-na-flot-i-aviaciu-rf-dzerela/; https://t.me/RBC_ua_news/140698

[51] https://t.me/astrapress/80097

[52] https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/673

[53] https://t.me/avdeev_o_vazhnom/6791 ; https://t.me/avdeev_o_vazhnom/6792; https://t.me/avdeev_o_vazhnom/6793

[54] https://t.me/mod_russia/51951

[55] https://t.me/wargonzo/26239

[56] https://t.me/dva_majors/70191; https://t.me/olegtsarov/27369

[57] https://t.me/olegtsarov/27369

[58] https://t.me/dva_majors/70227; https://t.me/NgP_raZVedka/21141

[59] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23689

[60] https://t.me/epoddubny/23305

[61] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23720; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23689; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23685

[62] https://t.me/nebesnamara/152; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/04/29/rozsypalysya-pid-kasetnym-doshhem-syly-oborony-rozgromyly-shturm-rf-na-kupyanshhyni-znyshhyvshy-bmp-ta-bagi/

[63] https://t.me/tass_agency/312761

[64] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23720; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23689; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23685

[65] https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/1917577050388586555; https://t.me/operationall_space/3688; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35043;

[66] https://t.me/mod_russia/51962; https://t.me/mod_russia/51963 ;

[67] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/9030; https://t.me/fpvredrone/44; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/9032; https://t.me/rian_ru/291672

[68] https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/1917577050388586555; https://t.me/operationall_space/3688; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35043; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35043

[69] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23720; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23689; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23685

[70] https://t.me/motopatriot78/35020; https://t.me/mod_russia/51975

[71] https://t.me/motopatriot78/35043; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35032; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35043

[72] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23685 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23689

[73] https://t.me/ButusovPlus/19457

[74] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23720 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23689 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23685 ; https://t.me/rusich_army/23023

[75] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/04/30/probuyut-efekt-neochikuvanosti-v-chasovomu-yaru-tryvayut-zhorstoki-miski-boyi/

[76] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/04/30/cze-yak-zoryani-vijny-poblyzu-chasovogo-yaru-vidbuvayetsya-totalnyj-dronoczyd/

[77] https://t.me/wargonzo/26247 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/51986

[78] https://t.me/CatBarmaley/5924

[79] https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1917291635483758602 ; https://t.me/Orki3MsbLauda/165

[80] https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1917356383864816017; https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1917356587456344272; https://t.me/obsp21pr/216

[81] https://t.me/motopatriot78/35037

[82] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23720 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23689 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23685

[83] https://militarnyi dot com/en/news/toretsk-sector-the-invaders-attacked-with-motorcycles-and-tanks-at-the-same-time/ ; https://t.me/ombr_28/2105

[84] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/04/30/ataky-motoczykliv-po-koliyah-na-toreczkomu-napryamku-jdut-vpered-kombinacziyamy/

[85] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/04/30/motorali-za-marshrutom-gorlivka-toreczk-vorog-skazheniye-navisniye-i-atakuye/

[86] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23685; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23689; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23720

[87] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23685; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23689; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23720; https://t.me/dva_majors/70191;

[88] https://t.me/motopatriot78/35033

[89] https://t.me/motopatriot78/35002

[90] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23685 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23689 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23720 ; https://t.me/voin_dv/14685

[91] https://t.me/dva_majors/70191

[92] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23720 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23689 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23685; https://t.me/dva_majors/70191 ; https://t.me/voin_dv/14685

[93] https://t.me/voin_dv/14685

[94] https://t.me/voin_dv/14682 ; https://t.me/voin_dv/14675 ; https://t.me/voin_dv/14674

[95] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23720

[96] https://t.me/Ronins44_65/502; https://x.com/666_mancer/status/1917485241150865440

[97] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/162970; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35046

[98] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/162969

[99] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23720; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23689; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23685

[100] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/04/29/okupanty-grayut-v-robinzoniv-na-dniprovskyh-ostrovah-polyuyut-za-rosijskymy-piratamy-yaki-hovayutsya-v-hashhah/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5TqaWCCdUg

[101] https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/670 ; https://x.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1917545682690355420; https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1917545378913870074; https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1917545831332262392; https://x.com/midwesternerers/status/1917562527073845737 ; https://x.com/666_mancer/status/1917576632581382195

[102] https://t.me/kpszsu/33560

[103] https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/21213; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/04/30/shahedy-zavdaly-udaru-po-dnipru-ye-zagyblyj-ta-poranenyj/ ; https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/14021 ; https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1917489387182444738; https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1917489529252110529 ; https://suspilne dot media/1006335-rosiani-atakuvali-harkiv-ta-dnipro-bpla-ukraina-sinhronno-zi-ssa-gotue-novi-sankcii-proti-rf-1162-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1745962062&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps ; https://t.me/prokuratura_kharkiv/22701 ; https://t.me/prokuratura_kharkiv/22731; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/04/30/unaslidok-rosijskyh-udariv-na-harkivshhyni-postrazhdalo-shestero-czyvilnyh/ ; https://t.me/synegubov/14074; https://t.me/dsns_telegram/42038

[104] https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/14021; https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1917489387182444738; https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1917489529252110529

[105] https://t.me/DroneCenterDNR/2831